Wednesday, November 23, 2016

Bristol Bay 2017 Sockeye Run Forecast is 41.47 Million Fish

Alaska Department of Fish and Game biologists are forecasting a run of 41.47 million sockeye salmon into Bristol Bay in 2017 with a Bristol Bay harvest of 27.47 million fish, and a South Peninsula harvest of 1.53 million reds. That’s virtually identical to the most recent 10-year average of Bristol Bay runs and 27 percent greater than the long-term mean of 32.76 million fish. All systems are expected to meet their spawning escapement goals.

The anticipated harvest of 27.47 million reds into Bristol Bay would be 2 percent lower than the most recent 10-year harvest, which has ranged from 15.43 million to 37.53 million fish and 34 percent greater than the long-term harvest average of 20.52 million fish, for the years 1963 through 2016.

The run is expected to consist of 12.05 million age-1.2 fish (or 29 percent of the total run; 9.35 million age-2.2 fish (23 percent of the run), 16.50 million age-1.3 fish (40 percent of the run, and 3.50 million age 2.3 fish (8 percent of the run).

The 2016 inshore Bristol Bay sockeye run this year totaled 51.4 million reds, which was the second highest such run since 1996, and 46 percent above the 35.1 million average run for the same period.

The 2017 run forecast to each district and river system includes16.07 million reds to the Naknek-Kvichak District (7.76 million to the Kvichak River, 4.04 million to the Alagnak River and 4.27 million to the Naknek River); 10.65 million to the Egegik District; 5.46 million to the Ugashik District; 8.62 million to the Nushagak District (5.50 million to the Wood River, 1.87 million to the Nushagak Rier and 1.25 million to the Igushik River); and 0.66 million to the Togiak District.

The Bristol Bay 2016 harvest of all salmon species was 39.2 million fish, raking first over the last 20 years and worth a preliminary exvessel value of $156.2 million, 40 percent above the 20-year average of $111.0 million.

The complete state of Alaska forecast is online at

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